MCX Gold Futures traders are the most bullish in three weeks as investors’ bullion holdings expanded to a record after central banks pledged to do more to spur economic growth. Investors are holding the highest ever through Gold ETF, gold-backed exchange-traded products after buying 85.4 metric tons last month, the most since July 2011. Hedge funds’ bets on a rally are the biggest in seven months as they have more than doubled their net-long position since Aug. 14 to the most since Feb. 28, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission – CFTC data show. Investors added 208.7 tons to ETPs since the start of January, data compiled by Bloomberg show. ETP holdings reached a record 2,565.5 tons yesterday, valued at $146.9 billion, data show. Inflation is bound to shoot up in the future because of mega quantitative easing and the amount of debt that’s got in the system. Some investors buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar, and Gold Futures generally earn returns only through price gains, increasing its allure as interest rates decline. The Fed said Sept. 13 it will probably hold the federal funds rate near zero until at least the middle of 2015. Inflation expectations measured by the break-even rate for five- year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities jumped 46 % this year and reached a 16-month high on Sept. 17. Gold is 7.3% below the record $1,921.15 reached in September 2011 and its average so far this year is set to be the highest ever. Gold Prices reached all-time highs in euros, Swiss francs and South African rand this week.
Sales of American Eagle gold coins by the U.S. Mint jumped 76% to 68,500 ounces last month, the most since January, data on its website show. UBS AG said yesterday its physical gold sales on Oct. 3 to India, last year’s biggest buyer, were the most since April. Indian consumers usually accelerate purchases before the wedding season and religious festivals later this year.
While demand from India will be “strong” in the third and fourth quarters, overall consumption will slump 25 % to about 750 tons this year, Marcus Grubb, managing director of investment research at the World Gold Council, told reporters in London on Oct. 3. Buying retreated this year amid surging local prices and as jewelers held a strike in March and April to protest government taxes on imports. Gold Futures rallied about 8.4 % since moving above its 200-day moving average in August. Other technical indicators are signaling prices may be poised to decline. Bullion’s 14-day relative-strength index was at 67.6 today, near the level of 70 that indicates to some analysts who study such charts that a drop in prices may be imminent.
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